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正向货币政策冲击是紧缩还是扩张性货币政策

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正向货币政策冲击是紧缩还是扩张性货币政策

Notes_20180617：

In standard NK models, nominal interest rate may change in either way.

When Positive monetary policy shock with nominal interest rate falling，The mechanism is the following: Assume the initial monetary policy shock increases the nominal and thus the real interest rate. The central bank then reacts to lower output and inflation endogenously by lowering the nominal interest rate. If the response is strong enough, it overcompensates the initial increase due to the shock. The only thing you know is that the real interest rate increases, so that the shock is still contractionary, although the nominal interest rate goes down. This is one of the reasons why you cannot look at interest rates to determine whether monetary policy is expansionary.

Due to general equilibrium effects, the nominal interest rate can go any way. You only know that the real interest rate must increase after a positive shock to the policy rate:

r_real=r-pi(+1);

That is actually the case. The “erratic” behavior is actually not that erratic, it simply shows there is not much persistence. If you increase the persistence of the shocks and the interest smoothing, things look more “normal”. What stays is that reactions in the first period are quite differently from the rest.

In Gali’s textbook, the sign of the response depends on various parameters.

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